Examining An Unlikely Joe Burrow Trade to Jets with a Re-Worked Contract
It is improbable that Joe Burrow would waive his no-trade clause to don the green and white of the New York Jets in 2026, but let’s examine how the contract would look for the Jets if the trade were to go down.
Components of Bengals Side of the Deal
Remaining Prorated Bonuses (dead cap): $32,499,568
There’s also a full no-trade clause in the contract, which would likely hurt the Jets, because he’d be going from one bad situation to another. However, Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey could convince Burrow, based on the team around him on offense (especially the offensive line) that the situation is better.
For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume they can convince him it’s worth coming to East Rutherford, NJ.
Remainder of the Contract from a Jets Perspective and a Potential Re-worked Deal
Right now, what’s left on the deal is as follows:
4 years, $163,539,018, $35,250,000 guaranteed
2026: $25,250,000 P5 salary, $10 million option bonus, fully guaranteed
2027: $27,250,000 P5 salary, $10 million option bonus, guaranteed for injury, fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the league year
2028: $35,500,000 P5 salary, $5 million option bonus
2029: $48,039,018 P5 salary, $2.5 million roster bonus for being on the roster on the fifth day of the league year
For the Jets, a new deal would add no new money. Instead, 2027 becomes fully guaranteed at signing, and 2028 is guaranteed for injury at signing (fully guaranteed in March 2027).
They would convert the first three years remaining to minimum P5 salaries, and add a signing bonus of $24,080,000, a 2027 option bonus of $25,950,000, and a 2028 option bonus of $34,155,000.
The new deal would be for 4 years, with a total value of $163,539,018, including $72.5 million fully guaranteed at signing, and $113 million in total guarantees.
This would effectively lock Joe Burrow into being a Jet for the next three years. Releasing and trading Joe Burrow (pre-June 2) would have the same result in 2029 (a minimal cap savings of $3,350,018). A post-June 1 designation would save the Jets $50,539,018 in 2029 with the same dead cap in 2030.
As of today, that $69,876,018 cap charge would be the sixth-highest in the league, and his $50,539,018 cash hit would be fifth-highest.
At the end of the day, it would be unlikely for Burrow to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Jets. However, it’s not 0%. So, if the Jets could convince him to come here, they’d have a great QB in tow for the next three to four years, minimum, with the void years providing the Jets with years to add onto the contract by turning them into real years.